A-Share Pre-Market Brief | 2026-10-01 Thursday

Market holiday notice: National Day market closure starts today (closed 10/1 through 10/7; normal trading resumes Thursday 10/8, CLS.cn¹). This list is a holiday special: time window = after the 9/30 (Wednesday) 15:00 close → this morning; all conclusions are priced for the 10/8 reopening. The special nature of long-holiday pricing (must-read): US markets still have 5 trading days during the holiday (10/1-10/7); last night's Micron earnings are only the "first night" of holiday external variables. At the 10/8 open, the accumulated US moves, oil, FX, and policy news over the holiday must also be layered in, so this list needs to be reviewed and updated daily during the holiday. Last night's 9/30 close in the US: Dow -0.86% at 50906.05, Nasdaq +0.24% at 26861.06, S&P -0.25% at 7651.54 (tradingkey²); US August core PCE 3.0% YoY (expected 3.3%, a six-month low), Treasury yields fell from highs; SOXX +1.19%, Intel +3.7%. Data caliber: A-share quotes are 9/30 closes (Tencent/Sina); US stocks are 9/30 closes + 10/1 early-morning after-hours (as of morning 10/1, subject to change); fundamentals are 2026 interim reports + 9/30 evening announcements. Price limits: main board ±10%｜ChiNext/STAR ±20%｜Beijing Stock Exchange ±30%; every stock below is tagged by board, and limit-up calls follow its board's limit.

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0. One-Line Summary Today

First night of the National Day holiday, and the Micron earnings the world's money cares most about landed — beating the top end of guidance across the board: FY26Q4 revenue $54.23 billion (consensus $51.1 billion), gross margin 87.0%, EPS $33.42; Q1 FY27 revenue guidance of $61.5 billion (market consensus $57-59 billion) far above expectations; management explicitly stated DRAM/NAND supply stays tight through 2027-2028, "no visibility on when supply-demand returns to balance," and 2027 HBM supply is largely locked (Global Market Broadcast³) — the memory supercycle is maker-stamped and confirmed, the strongest branch of the holiday (S-tier). But Micron after-hours "rose then fell" (+2% as of morning 10/1; Q1 gross-margin guidance 86.25%, -0.75pct sequentially, the "gross margin has peaked" narrative not dispelled) + the 9/30 retreat that just saw A-share semis post a RMB 13.46 billion main-force net outflow — a higher open on the 10/8 reopening is the base case; open-high-go-lower is the risk. Truth emerges amid divergence. Second-strongest is optical comms / optical modules (foreign-media roundup: Google unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, Meta +27% in September, core PCE below expectations easing rate pressure; plus Zhishang's evening-9/30 $500 million fiber-connector MOU and Naruida's optical-asset acquisition). Today's event: Huawei Mate90 series unveiled 10:00 and on sale 12:08 (pre-launch leak specs: Kirin 9050 Pro etc., subject to the official launch); holiday first-sale data will ferment Huawei-chain sentiment. Other evening-9/30 announcements: CMES's $2.8 billion 25-year VLOC contract, ACM Shanghai backlog +88.2%, HEC controlling-shareholder increase of RMB 600 million–1.2 billion. Driver types: overseas industry (memory) · announcement orders · insider buying / buybacks · overseas AI. Holiday tone: Micron has landed, but US markets have 5 more trading days in the holiday; every branch conclusion must be re-calibrated on the eve of 10/8; those holding through the holiday should focus on whether the memory chain can hold Micron-earnings pricing amid divergence.

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1. News Overview

Slow-variable watchlist: ① 5 US trading days during the holiday (10/1-10/7) — Micron earnings aftermath, Fed speakers, and economic data to be digested one by one; ② US 10Y ~5.24% at highs (9/29 data, TradingEconomics¹⁰), core PCE below expectations brings marginal relief but no reversal; ③ oil: Brent -2.56% on 9/30 then rebounded ~2% this morning (Sina futures), US-Iran talks and Hormuz still constrain the tanker chain; ④ FTSE A50 futures trade in Singapore during the holiday — no reliable quote for this morning; ⑤ holiday property-transaction and tourism-consumption data (released daily for 10/1-10/7); ⑥ Huawei Mate90 holiday first-sales / scalper-premium data; ⑦ final US closes on the eve of the 10/8 reopening.

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2. Strongest Bullish Branches, Descending

Branch dictionary for this issue: memory supercycle (Micron earnings)｜optical comms / optical modules｜semi equipment / domestic chain｜Huawei chain (Mate90)｜AI applications / compute (overseas mapping + announcements)｜tankers / dry bulk (VLOC contracts)｜insider buying / buybacks & events (HEC etc.)｜lithium / solid-state (high-flyer risk). Each stock belongs to exactly one branch; Sections 3/7 are consistent with this section.

Branch notes:

• Memory supercycle (No. 1): the only event this holiday that "changes the industry narrative" — Micron upgraded the 2027-2028 supply-tightness call from sell-side research to maker-management wording, and the $32 billion take-or-pay LT contracts (some to 2031) prove demand is real. Short-term or mid-term? Mid-term logic (multi-year) realized short-term (10/8 higher open), but semis just took a RMB 13.46 billion net outflow on 9/30 (10jqka industry caliber) + STAR 50 -2.51% retreat; whether post-holiday action is "missed-fear buying" or "good-news-realized selling" depends on US memory names (Micron / SNDK / Hynix ADR) on the eve of 10/8. The earnings-realization path is the most solid: module makers' (Longsys / BIWIN) H1 gross margin already jumped from 13-21% to 55-59%, GigaDevice Q2 GM 66.6% (+9.5pct QoQ); Montage is a "volume and structure" story (doesn't ride the price hikes themselves). Fully priced? Partially — Micron is up ~270% YTD, A-share memory names have pulled back 13-47% from July highs, chips have been through one round of washing. One-day-pop-at-highs risk: low-to-medium (multi-year logic), but intraday divergence will be large when higher-open consensus is too strong. Board mix: main board (GigaDevice / Demingli), ChiNext (Longsys / Ingenic), STAR (Montage / BIWIN / Giantec) — all with ±20% trading tools.
• Optical comms / optical modules (No. 2): dense overseas AI narrative this week (Google's strongest model, Meta app data), core PCE below expectations easing rate pressure — the optical modules avoided by the 9/30 pre-market list get a sentiment-repair window over the holiday; Zhishang's evening-9/30 $500 million MOU adds announcement-grade fuel of its own. Sustainability hinges on cloud-capex 2027 guidance; incremental news may arrive during the holiday.
• Semi equipment (No. 3): ACM's +88.2% orders are announcement-grade fact, but H1 revenue / ex-non-recurring didn't keep up — "orders first, statements later"; Micron's global expansion is a two-sided narrative for the domestic chain (overseas fabs buy overseas equipment, but the "chokepoint" anxiety + rising domestic capex logic is intact).
• Huawei chain (No. 4): launches today; holiday first-sale data is a free advertising slot, sentiment will keep fermenting; but PCB etc. already front-ran, and "concept ≠ beneficiary" — media named SmartSens, not OmniVision, for the main-cam CIS; mapping candidates must be checked one by one against announcement / survey evidence, and anything without hard proof is pure concept.
• Tankers (No. 6): the $2.8 billion deal is real, but amortized over 25 years it is ~RMB 800 million per year, and the company itself says "no significant impact on current-period profit" — this is "long-term lock-in + Simandou narrative," not a short-term elasticity play.

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3. Overall Bullish-Strength Leaderboard

Sorted by the Section 4 scoring model (full-market coverage; main board / ChiNext / STAR treated equally, ordered by evidence strength). Today is a holiday special; all conclusions target the 10/8 reopening.

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4. Stock Scoring Model

Total = sum of seven base components (cap 95 pts) + risk deduction (0 to -15). Components and weights: source authority 0-15 / bullish directness 0-20 / earnings elasticity 0-15 / industry position & fundamentals 0-15 / expectation gap 0-10 / theme sustainability 0-10 / A-share trading attributes 0-10 / risk deduction 0 to -15.

(Stocks ranked below No. 11 use simplified ratings with the same methodology; sub-scores omitted, totals in Section 3.) Fundamentals scoring framework: revenue / net profit / gross margin / cash flow / debt ratio / moat / niche leadership; all data from 2026 interim reports and company announcements, see Section 5.

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5. Top 10 Detailed Stock Analysis

51 GigaDevice603986Memory · Leaderboard No. 1 · priority deep-dive (A/72) · 兆易创新 · main board ±10%

• Related news: Early 10/1 Micron FY26Q4 results beat across the board and guide memory tightness through 2027-2028 (Global Market Broadcast³); DDR5 16Gb spot quoted $57.91 on 9/30, +480% YoY (MemoryIndex⁹, spot basis).
• Bullish logic: niche follow-up, not a direct DDR5-maker beneficiary. Interim-report wording: overseas majors exiting niche DRAM → DDR4/niche supply-demand tightness lifts prices; the company also holds 1.80% of ChangXin Memory Technologies (domestic DRAM IDM) at fair value RMB 10.06 billion, 23.7% of total assets — a second-order lever on "domestic DRAM capacity + price hikes." This affects revenue and gross margin (price), not pure sentiment.
• Industry-branch stage: mid-cycle of the memory supercycle, price hikes accelerating each quarter (Q1 GM ~57% → Q2 66.57%, +9.5pct QoQ; Q2 net profit attributable RMB 5.396 billion, +269% QoQ). No limit-up ladder (sector ebbing pre-holiday); post-Micron earnings it sits at a "logic restart point."
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 11.566 billion +178.67%, net profit attributable RMB 6.857 billion +1091.5%, ex-non-recurring RMB 4.883 billion +796.9%; operating cash flow RMB 6.048 billion +531% (net-cash ratio 0.88, best cash-flow quality in the memory chain); weighted ROE 23.13%; debt ratio 11.5%, no bank borrowings; inventory RMB 4.184 billion (+36% — a reservoir, not a burden, in an upcycle, and far smaller than module makers'). 9/30 close RMB 353.90, market value RMB 249.1 billion, PE (TTM) ~31.4x (annualized H1 dynamic ~18x is cycle-peak-profit annualization, distorted — do not use alone).
• Industry position: NOR Flash global top 3, niche DRAM / SLC NAND front rank, domestic MCU leader.
• Technicals / sentiment: 9/30 -3.72% on RMB 8.65 billion turnover — pre-earnings risk-off, chips changed hands; stock pulled back ~47% from the 7/9 high of RMB 663, the most fully-corrected core name in the memory chain. Main board ±10%.
• Final call: the "most real earnings realization + lowest valuation + cleanest chips" three-in-one name in the memory chain. Before the Q3 report (scheduled 10/30), watch mid-October earnings preannouncements. Micron's after-hours "gross-margin guidance down sequentially" is the bears' handle, but the company rides the niche follow-up slope, out of sync with maker gross-margin cadence.

52 Innolight300308Optical comms · Leaderboard No. 2 · priority deep-dive (A/70) · 中际旭创 · ChiNext ±20%

• Related news: Per foreign-media roundup, Google unveiled its strongest model Gemini 4 Argon early 10/1 (already used to optimize its own data centers); Meta +27% in September, best month since 2022; US August core PCE 3.0% below expectations, Treasury yields fell (Sina overseas headlines⁴).
• Bullish logic: direct order path — ~94% of revenue from overseas AI data centers (2026H1 overseas revenue RMB 39.615 billion, +209.9%); Google/Meta-type events transmit directly along "cloud capex → 800G/1.6T," not sentiment mapping. Company wording: 1.6T silicon photonics "ramping at scale, shipments climbing each quarter," backlog covering all of 2026 with part into 2027 (company wording as of July, media-cited; re-verify the latest wording before reopening).
• Industry-branch stage: optical modules in the main uptrend leg, Q2 net profit attributable RMB 7.917 billion +38% QoQ validating the ramp; no A-share limit-up ladder (large-cap trend stock).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 41.778 billion +182.49%, net profit attributable RMB 13.651 billion +241.70%, GM 46.25% (+6.93pct); debt ratio 36%. Flaws: operating cash flow RMB 1.8 billion (-44%, only 13% of net profit), receivables RMB 15 billion (+139%), inventory RMB 19.8 billion heavy on capital. PE (TTM) ~44x; broker consensus as of 9/29: 2026E net profit ~RMB 35.75 billion → dynamic ~25x.
• Industry position: global optical-module leader, >40% share above 800G (media caliber).
• Technicals / sentiment: 9/30 turnover RMB 12.85 billion, the market's largest, closed -0.56% — huge volume, held up; rate-suppressed pre-holiday with UST at 5.24% (9/29 data); holiday PCE below expectations = marginal relief of rate pressure. ChiNext ±20%.
• Final call: dense overseas AI narrative + marginal rate relief makes it the large-cap with the biggest repair elasticity at the 10/8 reopening; risks are holiday US volatility and Micron-after-hours sentiment spillover onto the AI chain.

53 Montage688008Memory / interfaces · Leaderboard No. 3 · priority deep-dive (A-/67) · 澜起科技 · STAR ±20%

• Related news: Same Micron earnings. Per foreign-media roundup, Micron "has locked in the vast majority of 2027 HBM supply and is co-developing NVHBM (HBM4E) with NVIDIA" — server-memory volume and generational upgrade are set.
• Bullish logic: volume-and-structure logic — RCD/CKD/MRCD/MDB ship per server DIMM volume and DDR5 sub-generation upgrades; it doesn't eat DRAM price hikes themselves, it eats "cloud expanding memory"; therefore it is not directly attacked by "gross margin has peaked" bears — the cleanest logic in the memory chain.
• Industry-branch stage: early acceleration of earnings realization: Q2 revenue RMB 1.874 billion +32.8% (Q1 was +19.5%, accelerating).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 3.335 billion +26.66%, net profit attributable RMB 1.997 billion +72.33% (includes interest / investment income; ex-non-recurring RMB 1.322 billion +21.17% — the headline-to-ex-non-recurring gap is the main flaw); GM 65.31% at a record; debt ratio only 7.5%, cash + trading financial assets ~RMB 18 billion; operating cash flow RMB 1.328 billion. 9/30 market value ~RMB 247.4 billion, PE (TTM) ~80x; February 2026 H-share listing net-raised HK$6.9 billion.
• Industry position: global memory-interface chip oligopoly.
• Technicals / sentiment: STAR ±20%, 9/30 pulled back with STAR 50 -2.51%, but the company's quality is the hardest in the STAR compute chain.
• Final call: if the memory chain gaps up into divergence on 10/8, Montage is the name "least attackable by the gross-margin narrative" logically; but 80x PE means what it fears is an "AI server shipment pace" disproof, not memory prices. Position-wise it suits as the memory branch's "low-volatility substitute."

54 Longsys301308Memory · Leaderboard No. 4 · watch closely (A-/66) · 江波龙 · ChiNext ±20%

• Related news: Same Micron earnings; Micron NAND ASP +30% QoQ, data-center SSD quarterly revenue near $10 billion (+10x YoY).
• Bullish logic: low-cost inventory revaluation + rising ASP, price elasticity already realized in the statements (GM 12.96% → 58.9%), the bluntest "memory price hikes = profit" transmission; enterprise SSD #1 domestic (IDC capacity caliber), Micron's data-center SSD narrative is a mapping catalyst for its enterprise line.
• Industry-branch stage: mid realization of price hikes, Q2 revenue RMB 14.18 billion, net profit attributable RMB 6.715 billion accelerating QoQ.
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 24.088 billion +136.26%, net profit attributable RMB 10.577 billion (only RMB 15 million a year earlier — growth unsustainable on a low base); ex-non-recurring RMB 10.047 billion. Cycle-top signals equally clear: operating cash flow -RMB 3.151 billion, inventory RMB 25.777 billion (+121% from year-start, 60% of total assets), debt ratio 56.13%. PE (TTM) ~10.8x; broker consensus as of 9/29: 2026E net profit ~RMB 19.97 billion → forward ~6.5x (low PE is a cyclical-trap trait); also pushing for an H-share listing (media report 9/9).
• Industry position: domestic storage-module leader (Lexar + FORESEE).
• Technicals / sentiment: ChiNext ±20%, pulled back ~13% in late September, part of the chips released.
• Final call: the biggest elasticity and the biggest risk. Use as the memory branch's high-β trading tool, not ballast; the cycle-top inventory / cash-flow combo means that once contract prices flatten QoQ, profit and valuation get double-killed far faster than a design house. The Q3 report (preannouncement window 10/15) is the make-or-break validation.

55 BIWIN688525Memory · Leaderboard No. 5 · watch closely (A-/65) · 佰维存储 · STAR ±20%

• Related news: Same Micron earnings.
• Bullish logic: edge AI memory (H1 revenue RMB 2.86 billion +433.6%, Meta / Google / Alibaba / Xiaomi as clients) + low-cost inventory revaluation; per foreign-media roundup, Micron's "auto & embedded revenue +47% QoQ, L4 autonomous-driving memory demand over 200GB" maps directly onto its embedded-business narrative.
• Industry-branch stage: mid realization of price hikes, Q2 net profit attributable RMB 4.267 billion +47% QoQ; rare interim cash dividend (RMB 4.242 per 10 shares).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 15.575 billion +298.1%, net profit attributable RMB 7.166 billion (RMB -226 million a year earlier), GM 54.81% (21.44% for full-year 2025); weighted ROE 78.69% (half-year basis, not annualized; cyclical profit + big dividend make the equity base low — mind this in cross-comparisons). The risks are equally conspicuous: operating cash flow -RMB 6.261 billion, inventory RMB 18.168 billion = 54.48% of total assets, debt ratio 61.64%. 9/30 market value ~RMB 91.7 billion, PE (TTM) ~11x.
• Industry position: edge storage modules global #1 (Frost & Sullivan by 2025 revenue).
• Technicals / sentiment: STAR ±20%, elasticity and volatility both above Longsys.
• Final call: pick either Longsys or BIWIN; BIWIN is purer edge-AI and has the deeper cash-flow hole. If memory gaps up on 10/8 it has the most elasticity; if it opens high and fades it also falls the most. Trading position only, not a allocation position.

56 ACM Shanghai688082Semi equipment · Leaderboard No. 7 · watch closely (B+/59) · 盛美上海 · STAR ±20%

• Related news: Evening-9/30 announcement: backlog as of 9/29 RMB 17.073 billion, +88.2% YoY (Yicai¹¹).
• Bullish logic: orders → direct revenue conversion (acceptance-based, 12-18 months); plating + furnace second-curve H1 revenue RMB 1.102 billion +36.3%, 29.6% of total, cumulative ECP plating-chamber shipments past 2,000 — benefiting from domestic fab expansion + advanced packaging.
• Industry-branch stage: orders first, statements later: H1 revenue RMB 3.718 billion only +13.87% (full-year guide RMB 8.2-8.8 billion, +25%, meaning H2 must accelerate significantly).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 net profit attributable RMB 989 million +42.14%, but ex-non-recurring RMB 571 million -15.3% (Q2 leaned on ~RMB 420 million of non-recurring items); operating cash flow only ~RMB 88 million; GM 46.86%; debt ratio 29.55%. PE (TTM) ~84.5x; broker consensus as of 9/29: 2026 net profit RMB 1.823 billion → forward PE still ~78x.
• Industry position: domestic semiconductor cleaning-equipment leader.
• Technicals / sentiment: STAR ±20%; at 84x PE, without new order-type catalysts in the holiday, elasticity trails memory.
• Final call: the orders are real, the profit quality is discounted; 84x valuation means it is betting on "orders → statements" landing in H2. When watching memory divergence on 10/8, it often becomes "the equipment safe-haven substitute." Q3 report 10/29.

57 Zhishang301486Optical comms · Leaderboard No. 10 · watch only (B/51) · 致尚科技 · ChiNext ±20%

• Related news: Evening-9/30 announcement: signed the 2027 Demand-Forecast Cooperation MOU with the PH client, covering MPO fiber patch cords etc. with target value $500 million (~RMB 3.35 billion, 3.4x its 2025 revenue of RMB 998 million) (10jqka¹²).
• Bullish logic: AI data-center MPO demand locked; on 9/8 the company said MPO lines run at full capacity, and post-Vietnam-expansion domestic + overseas monthly capacity is ~RMB 200 million. But the MOU is only "demand forecast + capacity lock," not a formal order, zero 2026 statement contribution, elasticity in 2027.
• Industry-branch stage: day 1 of event ferment (the only tradable new A-share optical-comms announcement of the holiday).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 683 million +32.41%, net profit attributable RMB 11.4654 million -93.69% (prior year had a Fukexima equity-disposal gain; ex-non-recurring only RMB 5.2448 million, -72.73%); operating cash flow -RMB 148 million, receivables +72.4%; debt ratio 23.95% still low. 9/30 market value ~RMB 24.5 billion, TTM net profit attributable ~-RMB 76 million (TTM loss), PB ~9.5x.
• Industry position: optical passive / MPO niche grower, not the leader; PH client identity undisclosed.
• Technicals / sentiment: ChiNext ±20%, small-cap with high recognition; after holiday ferment it very likely gaps up sharply on 10/8 — the fundamentals absolutely cannot catch it.
• Final call: a textbook sentiment name where "the announcement is real but the statements are far away." Watching is fine, chasing is not; a one-way board / +15% gap on 10/8 is a lottery ticket. Watch only until a formal PO lands.

58 CMES601872Tankers / dry bulk · Leaderboard No. 11 · watch closely (B+/50) · 招商轮船 · main board ±10%

• Related news: Evening-9/30 announcement: subsidiary Hong Kong Ming Wah signed 25-year long-term transport agreements for 6 VLOCs, total value expected no less than $2.8 billion (Eastmoney announcement express⁶).
• Bullish logic: first step of deep participation in the Simandou project (the world's largest incremental iron ore), locking VLOC long-term utilization; but the $2.8 billion is recognized over 25 years — ~RMB 800 million per year, only ~2.8% of 2025 revenue, and the company explicitly states "no significant impact on current-period profit" (National Business Daily caliber); new ships deliver only 2029-2030, revenue may land after 2029.
• Industry-branch stage: event real, near-term elasticity low; the tanker supercycle is the main earnings driver (H1 tanker net profit ~RMB 6.2 billion vs dry bulk ~RMB 1.2 billion).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 19.651 billion +56.15%, net profit attributable RMB 6.960 billion +227.57%; operating cash flow RMB 8.131 billion (net-cash ratio 1.16); weighted ROE 15.61%; debt ratio 47.53%. 9/30 market value RMB 162.7 billion, PE (TTM) ~14.9x, PB ~3.47x, historically high percentile; 2026 interim dividend of RMB 1.3 per 10 shares paid, 2025 payout ratio 43%.
• Industry position: #1 globally operating + managing 37 VLOCs, 50 VLCCs.
• Technicals / sentiment: main board ±10%, tanker rates fell from historic highs on Middle East easing expectations (9/22 single-day -6.24% at one point).
• Final call: treat it as a "Simandou + dry-bulk long-term logic" watch position, not a short-term catalyst; whether broker consensus (as of end-September, 2026E RMB 14.5-15 billion) holds depends on how far Q3 VLCC TCE falls. Watch tanker rates and US-Iran developments over the holiday.

59 Will Semi603501Huawei chain · Leaderboard No. 16 · watch only (B/45) · 韦尔股份 · main board ±10%

• Related news: Huawei Mate90 series launches today 10:00 and goes on sale 12:08 (pre-launch leak specs: Kirin 9050 Pro (Pro Max/RS) etc., subject to the official launch) (Guancha⁷).
• Bullish logic: historical Mate-series main supplier is OmniVision (inferred from historical supply ties), so sentiment mapping is direct; but media named SmartSens for the main-cam LOFIC sensor (IT Home 9/16¹³), there is no BOM-grade public evidence of "Mate90 CIS main-supplier," flagged as supply-chain speculation. The company said at its September earnings call that "high-end product share is expanding, Q3 GM improving QoQ."
• Industry-branch stage: event-driven, holiday first-sale data ferment.
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 14.025 billion only +0.49%, net profit attributable RMB 1.220 billion -39.85%; phone CIS revenue -30.98%, low-margin distribution +41% rose to 23.29% of mix, diluting profit; operating cash flow RMB 408 million, ~-78%; inventory turnover 160 days (could be period-end stocking, could be sluggish sales). Q3 guide: revenue RMB 7.578-8.130 billion (-3.2% to +3.9% YoY), GM 29.35%-30.65% rebounding QoQ. 9/30 market value RMB 103.4 billion, PE (TTM) ~31.9x.
• Industry position: CIS global top 3, auto first tier.
• Technicals / sentiment: main board ±10%, Huawei-chain sentiment main name, high recognition.
• Final call: tepid Q3 guide + H1 phone-CIS slump mean near-term statements can't catch the Mate90 sentiment; if holiday first sales explode, on 10/8 it will be the first Huawei-chain name squeezed — that is the cash-out point, not the buy point. What really matters is Q4 pull-ins and the annual report.

510 HEC600673Insider buying / buyback · Leaderboard No. 21 · watch only (B-/39) · 东阳光 · main board ±10%

• Related news: Evening-9/30 announcement: controlling shareholder and concert parties plan to increase holdings by RMB 600 million–1.2 billion within 6-12 months (prior round of RMB 300–600 million completed); separately, an evening-9/29 buyback proposal of RMB 600 million–1.2 billion (Eastmoney announcement express⁶).
• Bullish logic: real money, but the RMB 1.2 billion increase cap is only 1.31% of market value (~RMB 91.4 billion); with the buyback, ~2.6% combined — a sentiment endorsement, not a reversal signal.
• Industry-branch stage: event-type, continuous holiday ferment.
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 9.376 billion +31.61%, net profit attributable RMB 389 million -36.46% (RMB 351 million share-incentive expense + fair-value shrinkage; the company's adjusted-caliber +40.2% was questioned by third parties on base handling); bright spots are fluorochemical GM 45.65% (first-tier in third-gen refrigerant quotas) and AI-compute orders of RMB 39-46 billion (media / announcement caliber) — but H1 recognized only RMB 60 million of revenue. Hard flaws: debt ratio 71.26%, interest-bearing debt RMB 22.286 billion, controlling-shareholder pledge ~40.71% of total shares. PE (TTM) already distorted, PB ~9x.
• Industry position: electrode-foil niche leader + refrigerant first tier, AI-transition narrative.
• Technicals / sentiment: main board ±10%; the increase + buyback double announcement stands out in a weak market.
• Final call: the refrigerant cash cow is real, and so is the leverage-driven AI-transition risk; with high pledge + 71% debt ratio, any compute-revenue recognition shortfall is a Davis double-kill. Watching the show is fine; getting on board waits for Q3-report (10/23) progress on compute-revenue recognition.

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6. Pass List

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7. Intra-Branch Ranking

Branch 1: Memory Supercycle (S) — holiday main line

Most solid = GigaDevice; highest recognition = GigaDevice / BIWIN; followers = Shannon / Demingli / Ingenic; Pass = small memory names with no announcement proof.

Branch 2: Optical comms / optical modules (A)

Branch 3: Semi equipment / domestic chain (A-)

Branch 4: Huawei chain Mate90 (B+, event-driven)

Branch 5: AI applications / compute (B+, mapping mainly)

Branch 6: Tankers / dry bulk (B)

Branch 7: Insider buying / buybacks & events (B)

Branch 8: Lithium / solid-state (C, risk branch)

The sector as a whole goes onto the holiday risk list (Section 6): Shanghai Xiba and Times Wanheng officially cooled off; CATL (宁德时代, 300750) ESOP (transfer price RMB 158.42) is the only positive event in the sector, but it is a governance signal rather than a fundamental catalyst — watch only.

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8. 10/8 (Thursday) Reopening Validation Signals

Premise: US markets still have 5 trading days in the holiday (10/1-10/7); the signals in this section are based on the final state on the eve of 10/8.

• Auction signals (thresholds differ by board — don't use one-size-fits-all): ① Main-board anchor (GigaDevice): a higher open ≤3% with auction volume not weaker than 9/30 is an absorbable zone; a higher open >5% in one step is a cash-out window; ② 20cm names (Longsys / BIWIN / Montage) are normally volatile: a higher open ≤5-6% — watch for absorption; a higher open >10% — treat as cash-out; ③ a one-way board on a small name without announcement proof = overheated-sentiment signal; ④ whether GigaDevice / Montage gap up and hold above the 9/30 open.
• Sector signals: ① memory with 3 or more fast limit-ups (GigaDevice leading is best) and the anchor holding volume without breaking = branch resonance confirmed; ② Micron's holiday path: if Micron back-fills below the earnings-day low during the holiday, memory goes lower-open-lower-go on 10/8 and every bounce is a trim point; if Micron keeps rising, the odds of money flowing back after a gap-up divergence rise a lot; ③ whether optical modules and memory seesaw (continuation of pre-holiday fund rotation).
• Stock signals: ① GigaDevice's first-5-minute support (how fast the RMB 8.65 billion trapped shares are digested); ② Longsys / BIWIN volume without break (for 20cm names, watch turnover, not seal size); ③ whether Innolight can reclaim the 9/29 losses on the overseas AI narrative; ④ if Zhishang opens one-way / +15% or more, the seal-book depth sets the sentiment ceiling for the optical-comms branch.
• Risk signals: ① gap-up then dive (memory consensus gap-up turning red within 30 minutes) = pre-holiday exit funds cashing out — avoid; ② lone limit-up (only small caps squeezed, GigaDevice / Montage not following) = fake resonance; ③ laggard fade (Shannon / Demingli spike-and-fade is normal, but anchor fading is an alarm); ④ Xinhua Media opening its board = market-wide sentiment turning point, trim all elevated themes in sync; ⑤ if US markets sell off hard for consecutive sessions during the holiday (Nasdaq-level), all β logic yields to index risk at the reopening; ⑥ if tanker rates plunge during the holiday as US-Iran eases, CMES / COSCO Shipping Energy weaken independently of the logic.

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9. Final Recommendations

① Top 5 Stocks to Watch Today (for the 10/8 reopening)

Top 5 taken in leaderboard order (No. 6 Eoptolink 新易盛 at 63 pts, optical comms, same branch as Innolight, as a backup watch).

② Top 3 Branches Today

③ Directions Not to Chase Today

• Lithium / solid-state high flyers: Shanghai Xiba and Times Wanheng both issued official cooling-off announcements; 3-board high flyers + the longest holiday board-closure time = concentrated catch-down risk zone on 10/8.
• Publishing & media high flyers: Xinhua Media 7 limit-ups alone with no volume; post-holiday board open = market-wide sentiment turning point — do not pass the baton.
• Huawei mapping without BOM proof: the Mate90 launch today is a holiday-known card; before first-sale data arrives, every "supply-chain concept name" is a lottery ticket; Will Semi's statements (H1 phone CIS -31%) can't catch the sentiment.
• Sentiment-type MOU / purchase announcements: Zhishang (TTM loss), Aoni (purchase, not order), ST Doushen — the announcements are real, the realization is far away.

④ Final One-Line Judgment

Micron's earnings upgraded the "memory supercycle" from a sell-side narrative to a maker commitment (2027-2028) — the only event this holiday that changes the industry trend, and the main line at the A-share 10/8 reopening is unambiguously memory + optical comms; but Micron's after-hours "rose then fell" and the 9/30 RMB 13.46 billion semi net outflow remind us: expectations are already high, and after 5 US trading days in the holiday, a main-board anchor higher open ≤3% and a 20cm higher open ≤6% are opportunities, one-step gaps are cash-outs — put the two signals "did Micron rise over the holiday, did Xinhua Media open its board" ahead of every individual-stock judgment.

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⚠️ Risk warning: this list is a pre-market information roundup and observation only, and does not constitute investment advice. A-share volatility risk is extremely high; auto-generated content may have information-timeliness gaps or industry-chain mapping errors and must not be used directly as a trading basis. Overseas markets keep trading during the National Day holiday (10/1-10/7), and holiday news can materially change 10/8 reopening pricing; please layer the latest holiday information onto this list and judge independently.