A-Share Market Recap | Thursday, 2026-10-01

Holiday Special: Today is Day 1 of the National Day market closure (markets closed 10/1 through 10/7; trading resumes Thursday 10/8, verified via the akshare trading calendar tool tool_trade_date_hist_sina: the most recent trading days run 9/30 → 10/8). There is no trading data today for A-shares, northbound flows, the Dragon-Tiger List, or the limit-up pool; Hong Kong stocks are also closed today for the National Day public holiday. This recap is converted into "Holiday Information-Flow Tracking, Issue No. 1": we check whether the events flagged by this morning's pre-market list (holiday special) materialized today, track the holiday market signals that are available, and defer all price reconciliation to the 10/8 reopening. Data conventions: 9/30 closing data uses the finalized figures from the 9/30 recap (Eastmoney limit-up pool / Tencent close / THS industries); FTSE A50 futures (SGX, trading during the holiday) come from the Wantgoo / Sina public quote pages; Huawei launch information comes from the CLS.cn / ITHome / Caiwennews launch live coverage; holiday travel data comes from the Ministry of Transport forecast (as reported by Tidenews and Chinaqw.com). Price limits: main board ±10%｜ChiNext/STAR ±20%｜Beijing Stock Exchange ±30%; every stock mentioned is tagged with its board.

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0. One-Line Recap

Day 1 of the National Day closure, no tape to reconcile — sentiment carries over from the 9/30 close (divergent and cautiously biased, promotion rate 21.1%, highest board at 7 consecutive limit-ups); this morning's pre-market list is a holiday special (all conclusions target 10/8), and the events it previewed for today (Huawei Mate90 launch at 10:00, on sale at 12:08) played out as scripted, with spec details corrected (not a standard 9050 Pro across all models — actually tiered 9030/9035/9050 Pro); the only A-share-linked asset trading today, FTSE A50 futures, closed roughly flat (around the 13960 level); the latest external read is Micron's earnings beat with the stock about +2% after hours; tonight at 21:30 (morning of 10/1 US Eastern) is the first full US trading session after Micron's report — the first real validation point of the holiday; tomorrow's tone: keep tracking the US storage/AI chain, Huawei first-sales results, and holiday consumption data day by day; the 10/8 auction threshold framework is unchanged (main-board leaders gapping up ≤3% can be absorbed; for 20cm stocks ≤5-6%, watch for absorption; >10% treated as profit-taking).

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1. Market Overview

Markets closed today: no indices, no turnover, no limit-ups or limit-downs, no northbound flows. Holiday observation anchors:

• Sentiment temperature: N/A (no trading). We carry over the 9/30 characterization — "rotation from high to low beneath index window-dressing, divergent and cautious" — as the holiday starting point; during the closure, sentiment is repriced day by day by external markets (5 US trading sessions) and holiday news.
• Tonight at 21:30 the US 10/1 session opens — the first full trading day after Micron's FY26Q4 report (revenue of USD 54.23 billion beat expectations; Q1 guidance of USD 61.5 billion also beat expectations). The direction of Micron itself and of SNDK / WDC / SK Hynix ADRs directly sets how confidently the A-share storage branch opens on 10/8.

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2. Pre-Market List Reconciliation (Holiday Special: Events Layer Validates Today, Price Layer Deferred to 10/8)

This morning's pre-market list is a holiday special: all conclusions on 22 stocks + 14 Pass names target the 10/8 reopening. With no trading today, price reconciliation is uniformly N/A, and the hit rate only counts on 10/8 — no prejudging right or wrong. What can be checked today is the "events layer": whether the events previewed by the list materialized.

A. Today's Event Reconciliation

Sources: CLS.cn launch live coverage⁴, Caiwennews launch roundup⁵, ITHome Mate90 special⁶, ITHome Pro Max launch article⁷.

B. Individual Stock Status Today (Market Closed, Price Reconciliation N/A)

Hit rate: cannot be computed today (market closed, no price realization) — one-shot reconciliation of the 22-name main list + 14 Pass names after the 10/8 reopening.

One-line review (events layer): this morning's list judged the "time + format" of the only verifiable event today (the Huawei launch) correctly; the leaked specs were hedged with "subject to official announcement," and the actual tiering (9030/9035/9050 Pro) sits slightly below the market's top-config expectation of "standard 9050 Pro on all models" — a small negative-to-neutral for Huawei-chain sentiment (top-config scarcity could instead fuel premium and rush-buying narratives for the Pro Max/RS; see Section 3). Lesson learned: a holiday special's hit rate must be assessed on a double standard — 10/8 single-day prices plus one-week follow-through; conclusions must not be prepaid with holiday news flow.

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3. Today's Main-Line Validation (Information-Flow Basis, No Trading)

There is no trading main line today. The table below checks each branch's information-flow increment and what it means for 10/8:

Sources: Tidenews National Day travel forecast⁸, Chinaqw.com⁹, CLS.cn holiday tourism market¹⁰, ITHome blog¹¹.

Did the pre-market list call the strongest main line correctly?: the pre-market call "storage = the only S-grade of the holiday" rests on Micron's report; that call only starts facing price validation tonight — the original call stands; the surprise variable in a branch not listed pre-market = holiday consumption; first-day forecast data (340 million person-trips) matches a "high" reading but provides no evidence of a beat — listed as watch for now.

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4. Limit-Up Ladder / High-Board Leaders

Market closed — no limit-up ladder today. The relay starting point for the 10/8 reopening (carrying the 9/30 close):

• Highest board at 7 consecutive limit-ups: Xinhua Media (新华传媒, 600825, main board) — the pre-holiday recap characterized it as "late-stage crowding; a board break = the session-wide sentiment turning point." With zero news increment over the holiday, reopening board-break risk accumulates with each day of closure; it is the master switch for all high-position themes.
• 20cm high-board name: CanSino Biologics (康希诺, 688185, STAR) limit-up on 9/30 (on the Pass list; the company itself stated mRNA is at an early stage); 9/30 promotion rate 21.1%, board-blow rate 18.8% — the relay ecosystem had already turned cautious pre-holiday.
• Core-anchor starting point: GigaDevice (兆易创新, 603986, main board, 9/30 close 353.90, RMB 8.65 billion turnover) and Zhongji Innolight (中际旭创, 300308, ChiNext, RMB 12.85 billion — the session's largest turnover) — on the 10/8 auction, absorption in these two matters more than the sealed orders of every small cap.

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5. Capital Flows

No data today: northbound flows (Stock Connect closed), the Dragon-Tiger List, and main-force net inflows are all unavailable as there is no trading. Available holiday proxy signals:

• Foreign capital on holiday sidelines: FTSE A50 futures closed roughly flat near 13960 today with a range under 0.5% (13924-13985); on the first holiday day, foreign capital has no clear directional bet on A-share beta.
• What US trading already priced on 9/30: SOXX +1.19%, Intel +3.7%; core PCE at 3.0% below expectations brought marginal relief from rate pressure; Micron about +2% after hours (a modest gain after a "rise-then-fall"; the "gross margin has peaked" bear narrative is not dead).
• On 10/1, carry-over capital cannot enter or exit A-shares during the holiday; all holiday news piles up into one-shot repricing on 10/8 — the structural reason first-day-after-long-holiday volatility is systematically amplified.

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6. Tomorrow's Outlook (10/2, Holiday Day 2)

① Main-line continuation: the information flow shows no deterioration; the storage S-grade main line's truth gets tested tonight — the US 10/1 session (21:30-04:00 the next day) is the first full trading day after Micron's report, and the linkage among Micron itself + SNDK / WDC / SK Hynix ADRs + Nvidia is the only hard signal; the pre-market framework stands: if Micron keeps rising over the holiday → the certainty of flows returning after a 10/8 high-open divergence rises sharply; if it fills the gap and breaks the earnings-day low → every 10/8 bounce is a trim point.

② Key items to track tomorrow (branch + validation point):

• Storage (awaiting overseas session): tonight's closing moves of the four US storage names; whether the DDR5 spot price (MemoryIndex) resumes updates, and its slope.
• Huawei chain (awaiting data): Mate90 first-24-hour sales results (official / e-commerce basis), the size and persistence of Pro Max / RS scalper premiums, store queuing; if premiums collapse fast (refer to the curve of Mate XT2's premium collapsing to RMB 2,000 within two weeks), treat the Huawei chain's 10/8 sentiment gap-up as profit-taking.
• Holiday consumption (awaiting actuals): 10/2 actual trips vs the 300 million/day forecast, key scenic spots / duty-free / box office data — if it beats forecasts for 2-3 consecutive days, upgrade it to a 10/8 preparation item for the consumer branch.
• Macro / geopolitics: tanker rates and US-Iran talks progress (an independent variable for China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船, 601872, main board) / COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能, 600026, main board)); whether the 10Y US Treasury holds above 5.24%.

③ What to avoid tomorrow:

• Holiday risk accumulation in pure-sentiment high boards: Xinhua Media (新华传媒, 600825, main board), the lone 7-board name with zero holiday increment — the relay odds decay with time; keep it as a "wind vane only."
• Prepaying conclusions with holiday news: avoid any reasoning of "already fermented over the holiday = must rise on 10/8" — all holiday news piles into one-shot repricing on 10/8; the principle stands that a one-step gap-up (main board >5%, 20cm >10%) is treated as profit-taking.
• Huawei mapping names below leaked specs: concept stocks with no hard evidence that hype "standard 9050 Pro on all models" as their anchor — the official tiered lineup has weakened that narrative.

④ Input hints for tomorrow morning's pre-market list (Holiday Special Issue No. 2):

1. Pin three new tracking items at the top: tonight's US storage performance / Mate90 first-24h sales results and premiums / holiday consumption actuals vs forecast; do not update strength ratings if any of the three is missing;
2. Standardize the Huawei-chain spec wording across the full text as "tiered 9030/9035/9050 Pro," and note that it has been corrected when citing leaks;
3. Keep the 10/8 auction threshold framework (main-board leaders ≤3%, 20cm ≤5-6% absorbable; >5% / >10% = profit-taking window), and place "Micron's cumulative holiday move" and "whether Xinhua Media breaks its board" ahead of every individual-stock judgment;
4. Add big-ticket consumption as a "potential surprise main line" checklist item (echoing the 9/30 recap's review), with a seesaw plan against the tech main line.

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⚠️ Risk Warning: This recap is a post-market information roundup and observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Today is a National Day market holiday; the 9/30 closing data herein is on a most-recent-trading-day basis. During the holiday (10/1-10/7), external markets keep trading and news flow piles up; volatility is systematically amplified on the first day after a long holiday, and 10/8 pricing may differ materially from the inferences in this document. Please defer to exchange/company disclosures; this must not be used directly as a trading basis.