Byproduct of market-making analysis · Internal desk archive https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/ 2026-09-21T14:11:22Z Starr Quant Lab This site is an archive of internal desk research produced as a byproduct of market-making and market analysis. It is not investment advice and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Reports are generated by an automated pipeline and may contain stale information or supply-chain mapping errors; they must not be used directly as a basis for trading. https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-21/ 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z

There is only one trade today: Saudi crude exports have recovered (back above 4 million bpd in September, versus a low of just 2.4 million bpd in August), and WTI fell for a 4th consecutive session to $97.57 (−2.72%) — and it was precisely oil-driven inflation that forced the Fed's first rate hike in over three years on 9/16. Oil eases → inflation expectations and the term premium fall back → yields decline across the curve → duration and high-beta assets rebound broadly. (⚠️ Note: the shape of …

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-18/ 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z

The hardest fact today is not a headline, it is a spread that can be computed within one and the same timestamp and one and the same currency: on 9/17 the A-share market killed precious-metal equities on a "Fed rate hike" narrative, −5% to −7%, while RMB metal futures closing the very same day barely fell (SHFE silver −1.51%, SHFE gold −0.59%, SHFE copper +0.71%) — the same-period equity-vs-commodity divergence is −4.56pp for gold, −4.49pp for silver, −3.08pp for copper. But this branch carries …

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-17/recap/ 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z

Today was risk-on, but not the kind of risk-on this morning's pre-market watchlist described — the leader was not its No. 1 theme, it was its No. 3 theme. S&P +1.14%, Nasdaq +1.69%, Dow +0.61%, Russell +0.55%, VIX down another 12.82% to 15.44, 10-year Treasury −7.0bp to 4.934%. But the genuine leader was AI compute/semiconductors (basket +5.00%, 12/12 up), while the AI data-center power/electromechanical basket listed as the No. 1 theme this morning managed only +1.98%, with 5 of 16 closing down…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-17/ 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z

Yesterday the Fed hiked because of oil, and today oil collapsed on its own — that is the one-sentence explanation for this entire morning. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% at 09-16 14:00 ET, 12-0 unanimous, the first hike since 2023. Warsh put the reasoning bluntly at the press conference: "We cannot influence any single price, but what we can do and will do is make sure that changes in relative prices do not spill over, do not produce second- and third-order effects." (Fed press conference tra…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-17/recap/ 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z

Sentiment turned from euphoric to receding; the pre-market list got the leading theme wrong — and also got wrong the one bearish call it was most confident about. Today the Shanghai Composite fell −0.41% to close at 3,875.60, with combined turnover of RMB 1.82 trillion. The index decline was small, but at the sentiment level this was an unambiguous retreat: limit-ups were halved from yesterday's 89 to 47, failed limits rose from 11 to 20, the failed-limit rate went 11.0% → 29.9%, the median seal…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-17/ 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z

The chronology is real, but the conclusions drawn from it must be discounted. The broad A-share rally on 9/16 (75.1% of names up, semiconductors 184 up / 1 down) did all happen before the FOMC release — the A-share 9/16 15:00 close = 9/16 03:00 US Eastern, and the decision was released during the US session on 9/16. But the "hike" itself was not new information: before the meeting, CME FedWatch put the September hike probability above 90%. The only thing that genuinely arrived for the first time…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-16/recap/ 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z

The hike itself was fully expected; what knocked the market down was the dot plot and the language — the pre-market piece got "the real variable is not this 25bp but the dot plot and Warsh's language" right, but placed no bet on that variable. The FOMC at 14:00 ET hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, the first since 2023; the dot-plot median rose to 4.1%, i.e. one more hike this year (12 members favor one more, 4 favor two more). Versus the June dot plot's implied "only this one," that is a genuine upward…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-16/ 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z

There is only one real protagonist in this pre-market, and it does not come on stage until two in the afternoon. The FOMC decision at 14:00 ET and the press conference by Powell's successor Kevin Warsh at 14:30 ET, with the market pricing roughly 92%–95% odds of a 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% — this would be the first hike since 2023. The four and a half hours between the open and 14:00 are essentially position adjustment, not directional trading. · But the structure of this pre-market table is noth…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-16/recap/ 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z

Sentiment jumped straight from "freezing point" to "broad-based euphoria": limit-ups 32 → 89, limit-downs 27 → 4, failed-limit rate 42.9% → 11.0%, promotion rate 13.0% → 37.5%, gap-up hold rate 17.4% → 72.9%. Every reason to "avoid chasing" that applied yesterday reversed today. · The strongest theme was electronics / semiconductors / optical communications; the branches ranked 2 and 3 pre-market won, the one ranked 1 lost. Semiconductors +4.82% (184 up / 1 down), semiconductor materials +6.14% …

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-16/ 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z

Today is a "no new catalyst day." Filings inside the window were dominated by the "abnormal share-trading fluctuation" category (20-odd of them), and that category was empirically proven just yesterday to have no predictive power over next-day direction (6 names filed warnings on the evening of 9/14, and 4 of them hit limit-up on 9/15). The absence of any sector-level new catalyst is itself the single most important piece of information today. · The most important conclusion this session is that…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-15/recap/ 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z

Today was risk-off, but the real axis wasn't AI — it was crude oil. All three major indices turned from green to red: S&P −0.45% (7,585.73), Dow −0.63% (52,093.11), Nasdaq −0.78% (25,981.57), Russell 2000 −0.76%. But the index declines masked a 3.92 percentage point sector spread: Energy XLE +2.17%, the only one of the 11 SPDR sectors to close up more than 0.5%; Consumer Discretionary XLY −1.75% at the bottom. WTI crude +4.12% to $105.57, heating oil +5.92% — Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline en…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-15/ 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z

Today's pre-market is not a directional trade; it is a "Monday reversal." S&P futures −0.17%, Nasdaq futures −0.12%, SPY −0.14% — at the index level almost nothing moved; but the cross-section underneath the index is swapping places wholesale. I pulled pre-market quotes name by name for 759 large caps: 574 had live pre-market trades, 570 passed the "pre-market price − net change = previous close" reverse-computation check, and of those 562 also had a Monday return; across those 562 names (full s…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-15/recap/ 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z

Sentiment temperature: breadth is at freezing point, money is in single-point euphoria. Market-wide 1,120 up / 4,376 down (advancers only 20.2%), mean change −1.37%, median −1.50% — a textbook broad-decline day; yet the STAR 50 rose +1.55% against the tide, the only one of the four major indices to close green, and out of 90 industries only 3 recorded net capital inflow, of which the semiconductor line alone took RMB 4.461 billion (East Money main-force caliber), 9x the second-place name. This i…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-15/ 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z 2026-09-15T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is a "narrative event," not an order event: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an approximately 3,900-word essay "We Must Pace the Frontier" on 9/12 (Sat), arguing that "we must slow the pace at which AI model capability improves"; OpenAI's Sam Altman, xAI's Elon Musk, and Hugging Face's Clem Delangue endorsed it in turn. The overnight U.S. session accordingly completed an exceptionally clean rotation from "AI hardware → cybersecurity/software." · The overnight U.S. dive…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-14/recap/ 2026-09-14T00:00:00Z 2026-09-14T00:00:00Z

Was today risk-off or risk-on? Neither — it was an extreme rotation inside the market. The S&P 500 fell −0.48% to 7,619.98, but constituents were 281 up / 219 down, the median was +0.27%, and equal-weight RSP was +0.07%. Almost all of the index decline came from chip and optical-communications heavyweights (61 S&P names fell more than 3%, 35 fell more than 5%, and 10 of the 12 weakest names were semis/optical communications/AI power). Most stocks were up today. · The strongest theme was cybersec…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-14/ 2026-09-14T00:00:00Z 2026-09-14T00:00:00Z

Strongest catalyst: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published "We Must Pace the Frontier" on 9/12 (Saturday), arguing for slowing the advance of frontier AI capability; Altman and Musk echoed him the same day, and the market read it as "AI capex is going to decelerate" — a broad selloff across the AI compute chain. · Strongest theme: the AI capex chain selling off (I measured 45 AI hardware/compute/power names — 0 advanced, mean −5.9%); the mirror image is money rotating into software (25 of a 26-nam…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-11/ 2026-09-11T00:00:00Z 2026-09-11T00:00:00Z

The only S-grade event in the window is a negative: China State Shipbuilding (600150) announced at 00:30 today that a cargo-ship fire broke out at 11:15 on 9/10 at its controlled subsidiary CSSC Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding, and that all 25 missing persons have been found, none with signs of life; the Ministry of Emergency Management has dispatched a working group, and both Xi Jinping and Li Qiang issued instructions. Yet the stock closed +3.26% on 9/10 with turnover of RMB 7.145 billion — becaus…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-10/recap/ 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z

Today was risk-off, and specifically a day where the pre-market brief "got oil right and energy equities wrong." WTI settled at $102.48 (+6.7%) and Brent at $107.63 (+5.9%), both the highest closes since May 19 — the pre-market list's first theme delivered completely on the commodity side. But the equity side inverted: XLE gapped up +1.27% and closed −0.58%, almost at the day's low. Of the 13 energy names covered here, 12 gapped up (BKR was flat at −0.05%), and on an open→close basis 12 of them …

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-10/ 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z

Every asset today sits on the same causal chain, and the chain starts at the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military destroyed 5 Iranian oil tankers on 9/8 and the Houthis struck Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery (400,000 bpd); WTI rose to $99.31 (+3.39%) and Brent to $104.45 (+3.20%) (08:24 ET). That supply shock showed up directly in this morning's August PPI: diesel +24.1%, energy +4.2%, accounting for more than three-quarters of the rise in the goods component. · ⭐ Today two central banks/statistica…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-10/recap/ 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z

Sentiment is "day 3 of the ebb" rather than a turning point: the limit-up count stepped down for a 4th straight day (93 → 73 → 48 → 35), the failed-limit-up rate rose to 38.6%, limit-downs went from 7 to 11, the full market was 955 up versus 4,512 down, the median was −1.49%, yet the indices fell only 0.43%–0.93% — this is a defensive rotation of "banks, brokers and utilities holding up the index while individual stocks broadly fall". Of the three branches on this morning's list, only branch 2 (…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-10/ 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is the third round of escalation in the US–Iran conflict in the Middle East, and A-shares have already priced it twice as heavily as US equities; today's real value is not in finding the hottest line, but in dismantling two of the three lines that "look valid". · Strongest catalyst (hardness S): after US forces sank 5 Iranian tankers on 9/8, on 9/9 the IRGC claimed strikes on 2 US destroyers (DDG-119, DDG-53) and 8 tankers, and the launch of 20 ballistic missiles at the US…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-09/recap/ 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z

Today's real driver was not on any line of the pre-market list — it was rates. And the irony is that the pre-market list wrote it up as scenario ④ under "conditions that would invalidate this report's conclusions," yet never treated it as a theme. · Risk-off — and risk-off with terrible breadth. S&P 7,636.36 (−0.48%), Nasdaq 26,253.34 (−0.64%), Dow 52,380.66 (−0.77%), Russell 2000 2,921.24 (−1.32%); the three major indices fell for a third consecutive day. But the index declines badly understate…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-09/ 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z

Today's most important judgment is a subtraction: the "Brent breaks $100" headline cannot support the price the market is currently paying for energy stocks — and over the past hour, the very variable holding it up has been moving the other way. · The strongest catalyst is geopolitical. US forces destroyed 5 Iranian oil tankers (in response to an IRGC attack on a US warship), layered on top of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities. Brent $100.79, WTI $95.87 (08:33 ET). ⚠️ Note the timing: Br…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-09/recap/ 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z

Sentiment turned from "euphoric" to "ebbing", yet all three recommendation slots in the pre-market list delivered — and this was the cleanest reconciliation this slot has had in recent memory. Today's A-share market was a textbook case of the index being defended while individual stocks fell broadly: the Shanghai Composite +0.28%, yet market-wide 1,794 up / 3,642 down, with a median stock change of −0.68% — a complete reversal from yesterday's 3,257 up / 1,859 down. Limit-ups fell from 73 to 48,…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-09/ 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is geopolitical, not industrial: on 9/8 local time, US forces destroyed 5 Iranian crude oil tankers; Iran promptly warned that it would strike tankers berthed at ports in Kuwait and Bahrain and demanded that crews evacuate, while also hitting the US Azraq air base in Jordan with ballistic missiles; layered on top are OPEC's sharp August production drop and the simultaneous disruption of two Saudi export routes. This entire chain occurred after the A-share close on 9/8, and…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-08/recap/ 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z

Today was a "the index is lying to you" risk-off day, and the error the pre-market list made on the long side is the very same error by which the index lied. · The index fell mildly; individual stocks did not. The S&P 500 was −0.58%, but only 146 of 502 constituents rose (29.1%), the equal-weighted average was −0.96% and the median −1.04%; 157 fell more than 2% while only 41 rose more than 2%. The equal-weight ETF RSP −1.04% matches our computed median exactly, and sits 49bp away from SPY's −0.5…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-08/ 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z

The biggest price event today is not macro and not AI — it is a pharma accident, and on "the ones listed in the US" it is brand new. Novartis suffered three failures in one week: ① the lipid-lowering drug pelacarsen in Phase 3 (Lp(a)HORIZON, 8,323 patients) successfully lowered Lp(a) but did not lower cardiovascular event risk; ② del-desiran in Phase 3 (HARBOR, 159 patients) for myotonic dystrophy (DM1) missed its primary endpoint; ③ the cell therapy rap-cel was halted after 3 patient deaths. Bu…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-08/recap/ 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z

Sentiment temperature: warming, on the strong side, but the leadership changed hands. Today was neither a broad decline nor a broad rally, it was a high-to-low rotation: at the index level the ChiNext Index −1.15% and STAR 50 −1.52% led the losses, while market-wide 3,257 advancers / 1,859 decliners (official caliber), breadth even better than yesterday (3,039/1,987). What fell was heavyweight tech; what rose was agriculture, chemicals, resources, real estate, and pharma. The strongest leadershi…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-08/ 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z 2026-09-08T00:00:00Z

0 Yesterday's (9/7) market baseline readings Any judgment about "strong or weak today" needs a baseline, and this section always provides one. Tencent quotes + THS stockmarketactivitylegu + the push2ex official pool. | Index | Close | Change | | Breadth metric | Value | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | SSE Composite | 3932.70 | +0.07% | | Up / Down / Flat | 3,039 / 1,987 / 181 | | SZSE Component | 13774.91 | +1.91% | | Limit-ups (official pool, len==tc verified) | 93 | | ChiNext Index | 3398.68 | +3.…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-07/recap/ 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z

There was no session today, so all of this issue's information content comes from "that holiday futures half-session". And it delivered one clear directional reading: the "Nasdaq strong, Dow weak" structure of 9/4 did not converge during the holiday half-session — it widened out again. S&P 500 futures −0.17%, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.13% (turning positive), Dow futures −0.62%. The Nasdaq-minus-Dow spread widened from 0.45pp at 08:15 this morning to 0.75pp at the close, landing exactly back on the 0…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-07/ 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z

Friday's big green candle was the worst-beaten part of the whole chain bouncing, not the start of a new leadership theme. All six semiconductor-equipment and AI-interconnect names are sitting in drawdowns of 29.8%–44.7% from their 6/30 highs (CRDO −44.7%, KLAC −39.6%, AMAT −38.5%, LRCX −29.8%). This is a bounce within a drawdown, not a breakout. (Volume was mixed: SNDK 1.51x, MU 1.48x and KLAC 1.56x were above average, while MRVL 0.84x and AMAT 0.94x were below; full table in §8.2.) · One event …

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-07/recap/ 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z

Today was a clean case of "tech eating the heavyweights": ChiNext Index +3.41%, STAR 50 +2.42%, Shenzhen Component +1.91%, versus SSE 50 −0.41% and the Shanghai Composite up only +0.07% — a 3.8pp split between indices, exactly the reverse of last Friday (heavyweights holding, tech collapsing). Sentiment temperature: euphoric. Limit-ups 93 (39 last Friday), failed-limit rate 17.0% (55.2% last Friday), 3,039 advancers, and the 9/4 limit-up cohort today posted a mean of +4.89% with 13 names hitting…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-07/ 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z 2026-09-07T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst today is not an A-share one — it is that RMB 360 billion released on Saturday afternoon. Between 15:31 and 16:14 on September 6, eight central financial enterprises disclosed capital-increase plans together, replenishing RMB 360 billion of core tier-1 capital in aggregate, with the Ministry of Finance to issue RMB 300 billion of special treasury bonds in support (Xinhua, CCTV, 9/6). This is the largest concentrated capital replenishment of the financial system in years; th…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-04/recap/ 2026-09-04T00:00:00Z 2026-09-04T00:00:00Z

August nonfarm payrolls at +162,000 (consensus +53,000) set off a "good news is bad news" reaction, but the real story today was not rates — it was money moving inside tech, out of software and into AI hardware. The three major indices closed slightly lower (S&P −0.38%, Dow −0.51%, Nasdaq Composite −0.29%), yet the Nasdaq 100 rose against the tide, +0.21%, while inside the S&P 500 it was 177 up / 322 down with a median of −0.53% — the indices' "small decline" masked a session with clearly bearis…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-04/recap/ 2026-09-04T00:00:00Z 2026-09-04T00:00:00Z

Sentiment: divergent and on the cool side, and it is a "blood-transfusion" kind of cool — the indices barely fell, but the internal structure tore apart. Shanghai Composite −0.30%, Shenzhen Component −0.79%, ChiNext −0.78%, while STAR 50 −2.10%, CSI 500 −1.32%, CSI 1000 −1.21%, and SSE 50 bucked the trend at +0.15%. 39 limit-ups, 8 limit-downs, and the failed-limit-up rate jumped from yesterday's 42.9% to 55.2% (48/87); 2,249 advancers vs 2,773 decliners (advancers were 44.8% of the 5,022 stocks…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-04/ 2026-09-04T00:00:00Z 2026-09-04T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is the wholesale repricing of the precious-metals complex in overnight U.S. trading: gold-miner ETF GDX +3.95%, silver ETF SLV +2.51%, gold ETF GLD +1.85%, silver miners SIL +2.71%, with the direction being that the market pared its bets on a Fed rate hike in September (⚠️ this is a hike, not a cut: the fed funds target range has been held at 3.50%–3.75% since July for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh leans hawkish, and CME FedWatch on 8/31 put a 66% probabil…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-03/recap/ 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z

Today was a clean risk-on, and what triggered it was not data but one person. The 10:00 ET ISM services print ran hot on both the headline and the prices component (PMI 55.4, new orders 60.9, the fastest since early 2023; prices paid 72.6, above the prior 70.3). Under the transmission chain in the pre-market list, that should have pushed rate-hike pricing higher and knocked down software and gold. The actual outcome was the exact opposite: Fed Governor Waller said in a Reuters NEXT interview tha…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-03/ 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z

Today's macro backdrop is something many people have not yet re-wired: what the Fed is debating is "hike or not," not "cut or not." Ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC, the market is pricing roughly 60%–66% odds of a 25bp hike (CME FedWatch / Forbes 08-31). The drivers are the US-Iran conflict pushing energy higher, layered on core inflation stuck at 2.5%. This fully inverts the old reflex that "weak data = good for stocks" — in today's 10:00 ET ISM services print, what actually determines the pri…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-03/recap/ 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z

Sentiment: flat on the surface, cooling underneath. All four headline indices were essentially flat (Shanghai Composite +0.02%, Shenzhen Component +0.10%, ChiNext +0.01%, STAR 50 −0.40%), but the broken-limit-up rate deteriorated from 22.4% to 42.9%, limit-downs doubled from 8 to 16, and the Shanghai Composite was still +0.43% at midday but only +0.02% at the close — this was a day that faded into the close with a shrinking money-making effect, not a flat day. Pre-market got the direction of two…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-03/ 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z 2026-09-03T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is the escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict, but the oil-price leg is actually flat inside this brief's window — and it already ran the experiment on A-shares yesterday, with the result being rejection. ⚠️ First, a correction to a widely misreported timing attribution: the +4.90% Brent up-candle was 9/1 (close 95.11); 9/2 was only +0.15% (close 95.25). What A-shares reacted to in the 9/2 morning session was the 9/1 overnight jump. In the 09:49 snapshot of the 9/2 morning s…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-02/recap/ 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z

Today was risk-on, with one precise exception: software. S&P +0.46%, Dow +0.56%, Nasdaq +0.45%, Russell 2000 +1.13% (IWM +1.18%); the three major indices ended a three-day losing streak, roughly 2/3 of single stocks rose, and VIX fell to 15.20 (−6.98%). Meanwhile the software ETF IGV −2.60% was the weakest in the market, while semis SMH +0.96% — a 3.56 percentage-point divergence between the two. · The pre-market list got the directional calls almost entirely right, but its "executable value" wa…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-02/ 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z

Today's strongest catalyst is not any single piece of good news but a shared phenomenon: three companies (MDB, PANW, CRDO) all beat, and all were sold off. MongoDB beat on revenue by 5.0%, beat on EPS by 18%, and raised full-year guidance → −12.58%; Palo Alto beat and raised guidance → −8.24%; Credo beat on revenue, beat on EPS and guided next quarter above consensus → −17.57%. The same day, GitLab beat → +14.35%. All four beat, yet the outcomes were exactly opposite. · So today's main structure…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-02/recap/ 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z

Sentiment: turning from euphoria to ebb, but this is not a crash — it is a rotation of the leading theme. The Shanghai Composite −0.97%, ChiNext Index −2.39%, combined turnover of RMB 1,791.179 billion, RMB 242.2 billion lighter than yesterday; limit-ups fell from yesterday's 83 to 52, limit-downs 8, failed seals 15, the seal-break rate rose from yesterday's 6.7% to 22.4%, and the highest consecutive limit-up count fell from 7 to 4. The strongest theme was none of the ones judged pre-market — it…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-02/ 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z 2026-09-02T00:00:00Z

Strongest catalyst: there is not a single heavyweight brand-new policy. In this 16-hour window, the only brand-new, company-level, not-yet-priced hard catalyst is the RMB 633 million server leasing contract disclosed by 阳光股份 (Yangguang Co., 000608) after the close on 9/1; the only market event occurring today is the official launch today (9/2) of the SSE STAR Market Artificial Intelligence Application Select Index. All other "big news" was verified to fall outside the window (see §1 Note ①). Str…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-01/recap/ 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z

The pre-market list got the direction right, but its reason was wrong — and it was the single most important reason of the day that was wrong. The pre-market brief identified the day's main line as an "offshore long-end term-premium shock" and explicitly ruled out "Fed path repricing," on the basis of the 08:00 ET curve shape (2Y only +0.8bp, while 10Y +3.4bp and 30Y +3.5bp — a bear steepening). By the close, that shape had flipped entirely: 2Y +5bp, 3Y/5Y +6bp, 10Y +4bp, 30Y only +2bp — a textb…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-09-01/ 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z

Today's war risk is real and escalating (Iran has struck two US military bases in Jordan with missiles, and Trump has threatened to blow up Kharg Island, Iran's main crude export terminal); but that risk is being priced only on the crude curve, with no spillover into any traditional safe-haven asset — gold is falling, defense stocks are flat, tankers are not moving. So the correct framing today is not "this is not a war tape," but "war pricing has run down only one leg: crude." What actually det…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-01/recap/ 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z

Today's sentiment temperature: warming up, leaning exuberant — but the heat switched tracks. At the index level it was green: SSE Composite −0.16%, SZSE Component −1.02%, ChiNext Index −1.32%, STAR 50 −2.19%; but at the single-stock level it was red — 3,387 advancers versus 2,040 decliners (62.4% advancing), and 68 of the 90 industry sectors closed up, 22 down, with 83 limit-ups against only 6 broken limits, the broken-limit rate collapsing from yesterday's 25.42% to 6.7%, and the consecutive-li…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/a-share/2026-09-01/ 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z

Today's hardest catalysts are the three pieces of post-close information that landed together between 20:00 and 21:30 last night — all of them occurred after the close, so yesterday's prices do not contain them. The first is 20:12: 中际旭创 (Innolight, 300308) announced a planned buyback of RMB 4 billion–8 billion with a price cap of RMB 1,200/share (Sina Finance 8/31 20:12); the second is 21:06: Hunan TV's official Weibo said that the premiere of 《后西游记》 (The Later Journey to the West), the country'…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-08-31/recap/ 2026-08-31T00:00:00Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00Z

Today was a textbook "almost every direction right, but no money in it" day — the pre-market list hit 26/33 (78.8%) on the day's direction, yet 8 of the 15 long-side names closed below their own pre-market price: the direction was right, and that pre-market gap had already taken all the money off the table. - Risk appetite: mild risk-off, but masked by one violent single-sector event. S&P −0.33%, Dow −0.70%, Nasdaq −0.12%, Russell −0.62%; VIX 14.92 (+3.40%), 10Y 4.752% (+3.0bp), DXY 99.414 (−0.2…

https://research.starrquantlab.com/en/us/2026-08-31/ 2026-08-31T00:00:00Z 2026-08-31T00:00:00Z

The most important new information today is the California legislation — but the media has broadly gotten one key fact wrong, which I verified against a primary source and correct as follows. ⚠️ SB 492 has not passed, and the California legislature has not adjourned. I checked the SB 492 status page on leginfo.legislature.ca.gov (primary source): the bill's current status is "Active Bill – In Floor Process," located in the Assembly, with a history of — 8/29 reported from committee with author's …